While there is still some uncertainty regarding the weather forecast for the Central Appalachian region, there are some general ideas that seem to be emerging in the model guidance.

Here is a breakdown of the Thanksgiving week forecast:

• A seasonably cool, but generally quiet start to the week on Monday
• A milder, but more unsettled period for Tuesday into Wednesday
• A colder weather pattern will take shap around Thanksgiving Day
• A low end winter weather impact is possible around late week. 
• A moderating trend by the end of the weekend

What Is The Pre-Thanksgiving Weather Forecast?

The beginning of Thanksgiving week is likely to favor seasonably cool, but dry weather conditions over the Central Appalachians. As we head into the day on Tuesday, a weather system will likely move northeast from the Southern Plains toward the Great Lakes. This system will likely bring the chance for rain to the forecast as we head into the day on Tuesday. Rain chances will likely continue until the passage of a cold front around or just prior to Thanksgiving Day. 

The model image above highlights the approach of a strong cold front at midweek. Image courtesy of the Weather Prediction Center. 

What Should You Expect For Your Thanksgiving Day Forecast?

As we head out to our family gatherings to eat turkey and watch football, there is some uncertainty in the forecast across the Central Appalachian region. Most of the uncertainty is regarding the timing of the midweek cold font. An earlier passage would likely mean a colder Thanksgiving Day, with the potential for some snow showers or flurries. If the front is more delayed, Thanksgiving Day could shape up to be an unsettled day with seasonal temperatures. 

This image shows forecasted highs for the Central Appalachia region on Thanksgiving Day based on European ensemble guidance. Image courtesy of Pivotal Weather. 

Is It Going To Snow After Thanksgiving?

While this time period is over a week away,  there is no indication that there will be widespread significant snowfall across the region. While there is the potential for lake effect snow, the details of any potential impacts are highly uncertain at this range. 

Depending on how quickly the cold air retreats, there may be some moderation in temperatures during the weekend. 

The forecast is still about a week out, and there will need to be modifications to the forecast as we get closer to the Thanksgiving holiday.

Here is a quick recap of the Thanksgiving week weather forecast:

• The week will likely start on a seasonably cool, but dry note.
• There will likely be a couple days of mild, but unsettled weather as we approach Thanksgiving Day
• Thanksgiving Day will likely turn colder
• Any meaningful snow accumulation around late week will likely be connected to lake effect. 
• A moderating trend is possible late in the weekend

Be sure to check back for updates to the Thanksgiving weatehr forecast as the computer models begin to diverge on a solution.